Three in a row happens once every eight times.
Four in a row is one in 16.
“When you get to nine times, it’s one in 512 times,” Biondini said. “To get it 10 in a row … it’s 1,024. So one in 1,000 times! Already what’s happened is extremely unlikely. Even if he loses the coin toss on Sunday, the fact that he won nine in a row happens one in 500 times.”
In other words, Biondini explained, a player could expect to win nine consecutive coin flips, assuming he had the opportunity each year, once every 512 seasons.
Expressed a different way, the chance of that happening is 0.195312%.
Winning 10 consecutive coin flips, again, assuming a player had the opportunity, would occur once every 1,024 seasons.
The chance of that happening is 0.097656%.
The NFL does not keep comprehensive coin toss records, so the longest stretch of correct guesses for a single player is unknown.
Allen went 3-5 on the coin toss in road games during the 2020 regular season and lost the flip in the AFC title game. This season’s Week 2 triumph in Miami marked the start of a new personal streak.
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